Sources & Methodology

The quantitative backbone of this piece is federal administrative data. Permit counts come from the U.S. Census Bureau's Building Permits Survey, summed across all structure types. "Built" figures are the net change in total housing units from the American Community Survey, which nets out demolitions and conversions and therefore differs from completions. Rates use 2024 population. Both measures cover 2016 through 2024, the latest year the two surveys share; where more recent figures appear in the text they are identified by period. Party classification reflects trifecta control in 2026 for states and the principal city's mayor as of August 2026 for metros.

Federal data and statistics

• U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — annual state files (2016–2025), metropolitan area files (2016–2023), CBSA files (2024–2026), and place-level files for the Midwest, West and South regions
• U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates, table B25001, total housing units, 2016 and 2024
• U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, NST-EST2024
• U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction, via NAHB analysis — multifamily completions, 2024
• Federal Housing Finance Agency, Working Paper 24-03, "The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates," Batzer, Coste, Doerner and Seiler
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), used for all inflation adjustments
• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Housing policies in Saint Paul yield mixed results, data and developers say" (2026), and the accompanying Saint Paul Housing Dashboard
• Center on Budget and Policy Priorities — federal rental assistance coverage and unassisted renter households
• U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development — State and Local Best Practices for Home Construction (2026)

Academic research

• Evan Mast, "JUE Insight: The effect of new market-rate housing construction on the low-income housing market," Journal of Urban Economics (2023); W.E. Upjohn Institute Working Paper 307
• Brian Asquith, Evan Mast and Davin Reed, "Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas," Review of Economics and Statistics 105(2), 2023
• Stuart S. Rosenthal, "Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a 'Repeat Income' Model," American Economic Review 104(2), 2014
• Liyi Liu, Douglas A. McManus and Elias Yannopoulos, "Geographic and temporal variation in housing filtering rates," Regional Science and Urban Economics 93, 2022
• Vicki Been, Ingrid Gould Ellen, Michael Gedal, Edward Glaeser and Brian J. McCabe, "Preserving History or Restricting Development?" NBER Working Paper 20446 / NYU Furman Center, 2014
• Jennifer Hernandez and Holland & Knight, CEQA litigation studies, including "In the Name of the Environment," Chapman Law Review 26:1
• University of California, Irvine — working paper on the production effects of California's inclusionary zoning requirements
• Mercatus Center and The Pew Charitable Trusts — analyses of Houston's 1998 minimum lot size reform
• The Pew Charitable Trusts — Minneapolis land use reform and Austin housing supply
• Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies — pandemic-era metropolitan rent growth
• IGM Forum, University of Chicago Booth School of Business — economist survey on land value taxation

Legislation and executive action

• California Environmental Quality Act (1970); AB 130 and SB 131 (2025); SB 79 (2025); Propositions 6 (1960) and 13 (1978)
• Washington State Environmental Policy Act (1971); Growth Management Act, RCW 36.70A (1990); RCW 43.21C.229 infill exemptions and 2025 amendments
• Massachusetts Housing Choice Act (2021); MBTA Communities Act
• Texas SB 15, SB 840 and SB 2477 (2025)
• Kansas SB 418; Idaho SB 1352, HB 706, HB 800 and HB 583; Indiana HB 1001; Wyoming HB 0002; Georgia SB 447; Virginia housing package (all 2026)
• Florida Live Local Act (2023)
• 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, H.R. 6644, enacted July 11, 2026
• Executive Order 14394, "Removing Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Home Construction," March 13, 2026
• Saint Paul rent stabilization ordinance (2021), as amended January 2023 and May 2025; Saint Paul 2023 residential zoning amendments
• Minneapolis 2040 Comprehensive Plan; Minnesota comprehensive plan environmental review exemption (2024 session)

Courts

• Attorney General v. Town of Milton, SJC-13580, Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, January 2025
• Smart Growth Minneapolis v. City of Minneapolis — Hennepin County District Court dismissal, January 2025; review declined by the Minnesota Supreme Court
• California charter city litigation over SB 9, Los Angeles County Superior Court; City of Huntington Beach housing element litigation, California Court of Appeal

Elections and campaign finance

• Ramsey County campaign finance filings, 2021, for Keep St. Paul Home and the Sensible Housing Ballot Committee
• Ballotpedia — Saint Paul Question 1 and Minneapolis Question 3, November 2021; party affiliation of the mayors of the 100 largest cities, August 2026
• New York City Rent Guidelines Board — June 2026 adjustment vote
• 2025 municipal election results for New York, Seattle, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Boston

Market data and reporting

• Apartment List national and metropolitan rent estimates; Zillow Observed Rent Index; CoStar and Apartments.com rent growth reports; Zumper
• RealPage Analytics — quarterly apartment supply updates
• StreetEasy and Corcoran — New York City asking rents and inventory
• New York State Comptroller, Report 24-2025, "Housing Production in New York City"; New York City Department of City Planning Housing Database
• Boston Landmarks Commission and the Boston Planning Department; Massport and Boston Global Investors — Seaport delivery figures
• Los Angeles County Assessor records and contemporaneous reporting on Los Angeles Country Club, 2023
• Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and City of Detroit — split-rate and land value tax proposals
• Star Tribune, MinnPost, Minnesota Reformer, San Francisco Standard, KQED, NPR and Wall Street Journal reporting, as cited in text

Photographs

• Apartment sign, New York, New York, 1938 — Walker Evans, Farm Security Administration. Public domain.
• Back Bay, Boston, Massachusetts — Andre Carrotflower. Licensed CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
• Oval Office, Washington, DC — Official White House photograph. Public domain.
• Tower crane beside the Space Needle, Seattle, Washington — Elaine Thompson. Used by permission of the copyright holder.
• Tenant rally, New York, New York — NYC Tenant Bloc. Used by permission of the copyright holder.
• Austin, Texas, skyline from Mopac (hero) — rutlo. Licensed CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
• Downtown Houston, Texas — David Daniel Turner. Licensed CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
• San Francisco, California, from Potrero Hill — Andreas Praefcke. Licensed CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
• East Village urban prairie, Detroit, Michigan — Andre Carrotflower. Licensed CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

Disclaimer

AI was used to help design and create the charts, graphs, and tables found in this paper.